New CNN polling by SSRS shows that voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that went blue in the 2020 presidential election, are less than thrilled with the candidates they have to choose from this year. A small but significant portion of voters in these states are even willing to change their minds about the race, according to the poll. According to the polls, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck and neck in Pennsylvania (46% each), but Trump has a little advantage in Michigan (50% to 42%). Both surveys were conducted following the successful selection of Trump and Biden for president by their respective parties, as estimated by CNN.
According to the latest polls, Biden’s winning coalition from 2020 might be stronger in Pennsylvania than in Michigan, where he lost to Trump in the first place. Biden is in the lead among women, people of color, college grads, and independents according to the Pennsylvania survey, and he is in a virtual tie with Trump among those under the age of 35. In Michigan, however, women are evenly divided, Biden has a smaller lead among minority voters, and he lags behind Trump among young voters and independents. While Trump retains a somewhat larger percentage of his own 2020 voters, Biden manages to hold on to over 90% of his self-described 2020 backers in both states.
In the rematch between Biden and Trump, the majority of voters in both states have already made up their minds, but approximately 25% in each state are open to changing their opinions before the election. Even though Biden won each of these states by razor-thin margins in 2020, that is more than enough to determine the final result. Among a handful of important subgroups, there is considerably greater wiggle space: Independents in Pennsylvania make up 32% of the electorate, whereas in Michigan that number rises to 41% of those under the age of 35 and 45% of independents overall.
In the presidential race, less than half of the voters in both Pennsylvania (47% in the state) and Michigan (46%). Michiganders are less satisfied now than they were in the autumn, when 53% were content, just before former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley’s now-suspended bid for the Republican nomination was gaining steam. Among independents, the drop is the sharpest (from 46% satisfaction in the autumn poll to 29% currently), while Republicans see a lower drop (from 71% to 65%).
Voters in both states are in agreement that the United States would undergo significant transformation during a second Trump administration, but they are far less in agreement with a second Biden administration (around 25%). While both Biden and Trump supporters believe that a second term for Trump would bring significant changes to the nation, followers of Biden are less inclined to claim that a second term for Biden would bring fundamental change compared to supporters of Trump. In both states, the majority views any change that Trump may bring about favorably. Just over 40% of Biden’s supporters across the board believe his reelection would have little to no impact, and among those who would see change, opinions are more evenly divided on whether it would be for the better or worse.
